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Shonan Bellmare vs Tokyo Verdy — J1 League 2018

Shonan Bellmare
Shonan Bellmare
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
4/3/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 6Lemon Gas Stadium Hiratsuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Shonan Bellmare37%
×Draw29%
Tokyo Verdy34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shonan Bellmare
1.16
Tokyo Verdy
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 144 home / 46 away

creates per match

Shonan Bellmare
1.01
Tokyo Verdy
0.85

allows per match

Shonan Bellmare
1.35
Tokyo Verdy
1.30

finishing

Shonan Bellmare+0.00on par
Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shonan Bellmare ↓

Tokyo Verdy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Shonan Bellmare or draw
66%
Shonan Bellmare or Tokyo Verdy
71%
Draw or Tokyo Verdy
63%

Winning margin

Shonan Bellmare wins by 2+
15%
Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Shonan Bellmare 1+ goals
69%
Shonan Bellmare 2+ goals
32%
Shonan Bellmare 3+ goals
11%
Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
67%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
30%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Shonan Bellmare (draw refunded)
52%
Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shonan Bellmare at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.35 · 144 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shonan Bellmare attack 1.01 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.16

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.85 + Shonan Bellmare defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shonan Bellmare scores more
37%
level
29%
Tokyo Verdy scores more
34%

Shonan Bellmare at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Shonan Bellmare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Shonan Bellmare 1–2 Tokyo Verdy

Tokyo Verdy beat Shonan Bellmare 2-1 in J1 League on April 3, 2024.

The match was played at Lemon Gas Stadium Hiratsuka in Hiratsuka.