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Tokyo Verdy vs Shimizu S-pulse — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
FT
3 – 1
Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
9/29/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Verdy Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Tokyo Verdy23%
×Draw20%
Shimizu S-pulse57%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokyo Verdy
1.38
Shimizu S-pulse
2.25

Shimizu S-pulse creates 63% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.50
Shimizu S-pulse
1.75

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy
2.75
Shimizu S-pulse
1.25

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par
Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw
43%
Tokyo Verdy or Shimizu S-pulse
80%
Draw or Shimizu S-pulse
77%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
10%
Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
75%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
40%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
16%
Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
89%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
65%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
29%
Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.50 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.38

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.75 + Tokyo Verdy defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more
23%
level
20%
Shimizu S-pulse scores more
57%

Shimizu S-pulse at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tokyo Verdy vs Shimizu S-pulse

Tokyo Verdy beat Shimizu S-pulse 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Verdy Ground in Kawasaki.