Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shimizu S-pulse vs Tokyo Verdy — J1 League 2025

Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
N. Hayashi 18' (OG)
10/25/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 35IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse39%
×Draw28%
Tokyo Verdy33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shimizu S-pulse
1.23
Tokyo Verdy
1.11

Shimizu S-pulse creates 11% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 28 away

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.15
Tokyo Verdy
0.64

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse
1.59
Tokyo Verdy
1.32

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par
Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Tokyo Verdy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw
67%
Shimizu S-pulse or Tokyo Verdy
72%
Draw or Tokyo Verdy
61%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
17%
Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
71%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
35%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
13%
Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
67%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
30%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
54%
Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.15 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.64 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more
39%
level
28%
Tokyo Verdy scores more
33%

Shimizu S-pulse at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

66
J. SumiyoshiShimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse · D
7.7

Match Events

4'
Kosuke Saito
18'
N. HayashiOwn goal
39'
Koki Morita
56'
Yutaka Yoshida
60'
Y. Matsuhashi← Y. Arai
67'
K. Kitazume← Capixaba
67'
T. Inui← K. Matsuzaki
68'
Matheus Bueno
72'
R. Hirakawa← K. Saito
72'
R. Shirai← Y. Fukuda
73'
S. Takagi← Y. Yoshida
73'
S. Yajima← K. Kitagawa
79'
T. Yoshida← Y. Uchida
79'
S. Toyama← K. Miyahara
90'
Y. Shimamoto← Z. Uno

Possession

41%Shimizu

Shots

6Shimizu

Pass accuracy

48%Shimizu

Statistics

ShimizuTokyo
Overview
41%Possession59%
6Total Shots10
0.25Expected Goals (xG)1.29
5Corners11
7Fouls15
Shots
6Total Shots10
1On Target3
5Off Target4
0Blocked3
4Inside Box7
2Outside Box3
Passing
41%Possession59%
396Total Passes554
301Accurate Passes460
76%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
7Fouls15
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Shimizu S-pulse vs Tokyo Verdy

Shimizu S-pulse beat Tokyo Verdy 1-0 in J1 League on October 25, 2025.

Goals: N. Hayashi (18' o.g.).

Tokyo Verdy controlled possession (59%) and registered 10 shots to 6.

The match was played at IAI Stadium Nihondaira in Shizuoka.