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Tokyo Verdy vs Sagan Tosu — J1 League 2018

Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sagan Tosu
Sagan Tosu
9/22/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 31Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Tokyo Verdy40%
×Draw27%
Sagan Tosu33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokyo Verdy
1.30
Sagan Tosu
1.14

Tokyo Verdy creates 14% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 124 away

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.17
Sagan Tosu
0.99

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.28
Sagan Tosu
1.43

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par
Sagan Tosu+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Sagan Tosu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw
67%
Tokyo Verdy or Sagan Tosu
73%
Draw or Sagan Tosu
60%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
18%
Sagan Tosu wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
73%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
37%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
14%
Sagan Tosu 1+ goals
68%
Sagan Tosu 2+ goals
32%
Sagan Tosu 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
55%
Sagan Tosu (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Sagan Tosu away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.43 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.17 + Sagan Tosu defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.30

Sagan Tosu attack 0.99 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more
40%
level
27%
Sagan Tosu scores more
33%

Tokyo Verdy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Tokyo Verdy 2–0 Sagan Tosu

Tokyo Verdy beat Sagan Tosu 2-0 in J1 League on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Chōfu.