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Sagan Tosu vs Tokyo Verdy — J1 League 2018

Sagan Tosu
Sagan Tosu
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
5/3/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 11Ekimae Real Estate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Sagan Tosu42%
×Draw28%
Tokyo Verdy30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagan Tosu
1.28
Tokyo Verdy
1.02

Sagan Tosu creates 25% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 46 away

creates per match

Sagan Tosu
1.26
Tokyo Verdy
0.85

allows per match

Sagan Tosu
1.19
Tokyo Verdy
1.30

finishing

Sagan Tosu+0.00on par
Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagan Tosu ↓

Tokyo Verdy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sagan Tosu or draw
70%
Sagan Tosu or Tokyo Verdy
72%
Draw or Tokyo Verdy
58%

Winning margin

Sagan Tosu wins by 2+
19%
Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sagan Tosu 1+ goals
72%
Sagan Tosu 2+ goals
37%
Sagan Tosu 3+ goals
14%
Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
64%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
27%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sagan Tosu (draw refunded)
59%
Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagan Tosu at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.19 · 124 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagan Tosu attack 1.26 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.28

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.85 + Sagan Tosu defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sagan Tosu scores more
42%
level
28%
Tokyo Verdy scores more
30%

Sagan Tosu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sagan Tosu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sagan Tosu vs Tokyo Verdy

Tokyo Verdy beat Sagan Tosu 2-0 in J1 League on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium in Tosu.