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Tokyo Verdy vs Omiya Ardija — J2 League 2018

Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Omiya Ardija
Omiya Ardija
4/1/2023J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 7Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Tokyo Verdy42%
×Draw27%
Omiya Ardija31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokyo Verdy
1.34
Omiya Ardija
1.10

Tokyo Verdy creates 22% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 146 away

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.36
Omiya Ardija
1.12

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.08
Omiya Ardija
1.32

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par
Omiya Ardija+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Omiya Ardija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw
69%
Tokyo Verdy or Omiya Ardija
73%
Draw or Omiya Ardija
58%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
19%
Omiya Ardija wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
74%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
39%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
15%
Omiya Ardija 1+ goals
67%
Omiya Ardija 2+ goals
30%
Omiya Ardija 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
58%
Omiya Ardija (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.08 · 130 matches

Omiya Ardija away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.36 + Omiya Ardija defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.34

Omiya Ardija attack 1.12 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more
42%
level
27%
Omiya Ardija scores more
31%

Tokyo Verdy at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Tokyo Verdy 1–0 Omiya Ardija

Tokyo Verdy beat Omiya Ardija 1-0 in J2 League on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Chōfu.