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Omiya Ardija vs Tokyo Verdy — J2 League 2018

Omiya Ardija
Omiya Ardija
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
9/5/2021J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 28NACK5 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Omiya Ardija37%
×Draw26%
Tokyo Verdy37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Omiya Ardija
1.32
Tokyo Verdy
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 147 home / 130 away

creates per match

Omiya Ardija
1.40
Tokyo Verdy
1.38

allows per match

Omiya Ardija
1.26
Tokyo Verdy
1.25

finishing

Omiya Ardija+0.00on par
Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Omiya Ardija ↓

Tokyo Verdy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Omiya Ardija or draw
63%
Omiya Ardija or Tokyo Verdy
74%
Draw or Tokyo Verdy
63%

Winning margin

Omiya Ardija wins by 2+
17%
Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Omiya Ardija 1+ goals
73%
Omiya Ardija 2+ goals
38%
Omiya Ardija 3+ goals
15%
Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
73%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
38%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Omiya Ardija (draw refunded)
50%
Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Omiya Ardija at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.26 · 147 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Omiya Ardija attack 1.40 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.32

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.38 + Omiya Ardija defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Omiya Ardija scores more
37%
level
26%
Tokyo Verdy scores more
37%

Omiya Ardija at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Omiya Ardija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Omiya Ardija 2–1 Tokyo Verdy

Omiya Ardija beat Tokyo Verdy 2-1 in J2 League on September 5, 2021.

The match was played at NACK5 Stadium in Saitama.