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Tokyo Verdy vs Machida Zelvia — J1 League 2018

Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
7/20/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 24Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Tokyo Verdy30%
×Draw28%
Machida Zelvia42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokyo Verdy
1.02
Machida Zelvia
1.27

Machida Zelvia creates 25% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy
0.94
Machida Zelvia
1.34

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.20
Machida Zelvia
1.11

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.39scores more
Machida Zelvia+0.33scores more

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw
58%
Tokyo Verdy or Machida Zelvia
72%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
70%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
11%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
64%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
27%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
8%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
72%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
36%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
41%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.20 · 6 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.94 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Machida Zelvia attack 1.34 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more
30%
level
28%
Machida Zelvia scores more
42%

Machida Zelvia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Tokyo Verdy 0–1 Machida Zelvia

Machida Zelvia beat Tokyo Verdy 1-0 in J1 League on July 20, 2025.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Tokyo.