Machida Zelvia 0–1 Tokyo Verdy: Result & Stats

Machida Zelvia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tokyo Verdy

2/26/2025

J1 League · Round 3Machida GION Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Machida Zelvia46%

×Draw28%

Tokyo Verdy26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Machida ZelviaExpected goals in this matchTokyo Verdy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.93

Machida Zelvia

1.35

Tokyo Verdy

0.93

Machida Zelvia creates 45% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 46 away

1.41

creates per match

0.85

1.00

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Machida Zelvia

1.41

Tokyo Verdy

0.85

allows per match

Machida Zelvia

1.00

Tokyo Verdy

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Tokyo Verdy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw

74%

Machida Zelvia or Tokyo Verdy

72%

Draw or Tokyo Verdy

54%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+

22%

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals

74%

Machida Zelvia 2+ goals

39%

Machida Zelvia 3+ goals

15%

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals

61%

Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals

24%

Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)

64%

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 44 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.41 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.35

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.85 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more

46%

level

28%

Tokyo Verdy scores more

26%

Machida Zelvia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff