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Tokyo Verdy vs Kyoto Sanga — J1 League 2018

Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
5/25/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 18Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Tokyo Verdy39%
×Draw26%
Kyoto Sanga35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokyo Verdy
1.36
Kyoto Sanga
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy
0.94
Kyoto Sanga
1.33

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.20
Kyoto Sanga
1.79

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.39scores more
Kyoto Sanga+0.50scores more

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Kyoto Sanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw
65%
Tokyo Verdy or Kyoto Sanga
74%
Draw or Kyoto Sanga
61%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
18%
Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
74%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
39%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
16%
Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
72%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
36%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
53%
Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.20 · 6 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.79 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.94 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.36

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.33 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more
39%
level
26%
Kyoto Sanga scores more
35%

Tokyo Verdy at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tokyo Verdy vs Kyoto Sanga

Tokyo Verdy beat Kyoto Sanga 1-0 in J1 League on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Tokyo.