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Kyoto Sanga vs Tokyo Verdy — J2 League 2018

Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
8/28/2021J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 27Sanga Stadium by Kyocera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Kyoto Sanga39%
×Draw27%
Tokyo Verdy34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kyoto Sanga
1.29
Tokyo Verdy
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 130 away

creates per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.33
Tokyo Verdy
1.38

allows per match

Kyoto Sanga
1.01
Tokyo Verdy
1.25

finishing

Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par
Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kyoto Sanga ↓

Tokyo Verdy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kyoto Sanga or draw
66%
Kyoto Sanga or Tokyo Verdy
73%
Draw or Tokyo Verdy
61%

Winning margin

Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
17%
Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
72%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
37%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
14%
Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
70%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
33%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
53%
Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kyoto Sanga at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.01 · 84 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.33 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.38 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kyoto Sanga scores more
39%
level
27%
Tokyo Verdy scores more
34%

Kyoto Sanga at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kyoto Sanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kyoto Sanga vs Tokyo Verdy

Kyoto Sanga beat Tokyo Verdy 3-1 in J2 League on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Sanga Stadium by Kyocera in Kameoka.