Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Tokyo Verdy vs Kyoto Sanga — J2 League 2018

Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kyoto Sanga
Kyoto Sanga
6/16/2018J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 19Ajinomoto Stadium (Chōfu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Tokyo Verdy40%
×Draw27%
Kyoto Sanga33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokyo Verdy
1.29
Kyoto Sanga
1.14

Tokyo Verdy creates 13% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 89 away

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.36
Kyoto Sanga
1.19

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.08
Kyoto Sanga
1.21

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par
Kyoto Sanga+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Kyoto Sanga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw
67%
Tokyo Verdy or Kyoto Sanga
73%
Draw or Kyoto Sanga
60%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
18%
Kyoto Sanga wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
72%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
37%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
14%
Kyoto Sanga 1+ goals
68%
Kyoto Sanga 2+ goals
32%
Kyoto Sanga 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
55%
Kyoto Sanga (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.08 · 132 matches

Kyoto Sanga away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.21 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.36 + Kyoto Sanga defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.29

Kyoto Sanga attack 1.19 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more
40%
level
27%
Kyoto Sanga scores more
33%

Tokyo Verdy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Tokyo Verdy 3–1 Kyoto Sanga

Tokyo Verdy beat Kyoto Sanga 3-1 in J2 League on June 16, 2018.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium (Chōfu).