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Tokyo Verdy vs Kamatamare Sanuki — J2 League 2018

Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kamatamare Sanuki
Kamatamare Sanuki
11/11/2018J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 41Ajinomoto Stadium (Chōfu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Tokyo Verdy54%
×Draw25%
Kamatamare Sanuki21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokyo Verdy
1.58
Kamatamare Sanuki
0.87

Tokyo Verdy creates 82% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 29 away

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.36
Kamatamare Sanuki
0.66

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.08
Kamatamare Sanuki
1.79

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par
Kamatamare Sanuki+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Kamatamare Sanuki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw
79%
Tokyo Verdy or Kamatamare Sanuki
75%
Draw or Kamatamare Sanuki
46%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
29%
Kamatamare Sanuki wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
79%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
47%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
21%
Kamatamare Sanuki 1+ goals
58%
Kamatamare Sanuki 2+ goals
22%
Kamatamare Sanuki 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
72%
Kamatamare Sanuki (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.08 · 132 matches

Kamatamare Sanuki away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.36 + Kamatamare Sanuki defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.58

Kamatamare Sanuki attack 0.66 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more
54%
level
25%
Kamatamare Sanuki scores more
21%

Tokyo Verdy at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Tokyo Verdy 1–0 Kamatamare Sanuki

Tokyo Verdy beat Kamatamare Sanuki 1-0 in J2 League on November 11, 2018.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium (Chōfu).