Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kamatamare Sanuki vs Tokyo Verdy — J2 League 2018

Kamatamare Sanuki
Kamatamare Sanuki
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
6/30/2018J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 21Pikara Stadium (Marugame)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kamatamare Sanuki25%
×Draw26%
Tokyo Verdy48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamatamare Sanuki
0.99
Tokyo Verdy
1.48

Tokyo Verdy creates 49% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 131 away

creates per match

Kamatamare Sanuki
0.73
Tokyo Verdy
1.38

allows per match

Kamatamare Sanuki
1.58
Tokyo Verdy
1.25

finishing

Kamatamare Sanuki+0.00on par
Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamatamare Sanuki ↓

Tokyo Verdy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kamatamare Sanuki or draw
52%
Kamatamare Sanuki or Tokyo Verdy
74%
Draw or Tokyo Verdy
75%

Winning margin

Kamatamare Sanuki wins by 2+
9%
Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Kamatamare Sanuki 1+ goals
63%
Kamatamare Sanuki 2+ goals
26%
Kamatamare Sanuki 3+ goals
8%
Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
77%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
43%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Kamatamare Sanuki (draw refunded)
34%
Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamatamare Sanuki at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.58 · 26 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamatamare Sanuki attack 0.73 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.99

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.38 + Kamatamare Sanuki defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kamatamare Sanuki scores more
25%
level
26%
Tokyo Verdy scores more
48%

Tokyo Verdy at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Kamatamare Sanuki 3–1 Tokyo Verdy

Kamatamare Sanuki beat Tokyo Verdy 3-1 in J2 League on June 30, 2018.

The match was played at Pikara Stadium (Marugame).