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Tokyo Verdy vs Jubilo Iwata — J2 League 2018

Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jubilo Iwata
Jubilo Iwata
10/21/2020J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 28Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Tokyo Verdy37%
×Draw27%
Jubilo Iwata36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokyo Verdy
1.25
Jubilo Iwata
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 132 home / 85 away

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.36
Jubilo Iwata
1.40

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.08
Jubilo Iwata
1.13

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par
Jubilo Iwata+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Jubilo Iwata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw
64%
Tokyo Verdy or Jubilo Iwata
73%
Draw or Jubilo Iwata
63%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
16%
Jubilo Iwata wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
71%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
36%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
13%
Jubilo Iwata 1+ goals
71%
Jubilo Iwata 2+ goals
35%
Jubilo Iwata 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
50%
Jubilo Iwata (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.08 · 132 matches

Jubilo Iwata away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.13 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.36 + Jubilo Iwata defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Jubilo Iwata attack 1.40 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more
37%
level
27%
Jubilo Iwata scores more
36%

Tokyo Verdy at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tokyo Verdy vs Jubilo Iwata

Tokyo Verdy and Jubilo Iwata drew 0-0 in J2 League on October 21, 2020.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Chōfu.