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Jubilo Iwata vs Tokyo Verdy — J1 League 2018

Jubilo Iwata
Jubilo Iwata
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
6/26/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 20Yamaha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Jubilo Iwata37%
×Draw27%
Tokyo Verdy36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jubilo Iwata
1.25
Tokyo Verdy
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 46 away

creates per match

Jubilo Iwata
1.21
Tokyo Verdy
0.85

allows per match

Jubilo Iwata
1.60
Tokyo Verdy
1.30

finishing

Jubilo Iwata+0.00on par
Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jubilo Iwata ↓

Tokyo Verdy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Jubilo Iwata or draw
64%
Jubilo Iwata or Tokyo Verdy
73%
Draw or Tokyo Verdy
63%

Winning margin

Jubilo Iwata wins by 2+
16%
Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Jubilo Iwata 1+ goals
71%
Jubilo Iwata 2+ goals
36%
Jubilo Iwata 3+ goals
13%
Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
71%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
35%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Jubilo Iwata (draw refunded)
51%
Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jubilo Iwata at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jubilo Iwata attack 1.21 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.85 + Jubilo Iwata defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Jubilo Iwata scores more
37%
level
27%
Tokyo Verdy scores more
36%

Jubilo Iwata at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Jubilo Iwata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jubilo Iwata vs Tokyo Verdy

Jubilo Iwata beat Tokyo Verdy 3-0 in J1 League on June 26, 2024.

The match was played at Yamaha Stadium in Iwata.