Jubilo Iwata 2–1 Tokyo Verdy: Result & Stats

Jubilo Iwata

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Tokyo Verdy

8/14/2021

J2 League · Round 25Yamaha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Jubilo Iwata44%

×Draw25%

Tokyo Verdy31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jubilo IwataExpected goals in this matchTokyo Verdy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.26

Jubilo Iwata

1.56

Tokyo Verdy

1.26

Jubilo Iwata creates 24% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 130 away

1.86

creates per match

1.38

1.14

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Jubilo Iwata

1.86

Tokyo Verdy

1.38

allows per match

Jubilo Iwata

1.14

Tokyo Verdy

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jubilo Iwata+0.00on par

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jubilo Iwata ↓

Tokyo Verdy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Jubilo Iwata or draw

69%

Jubilo Iwata or Tokyo Verdy

75%

Draw or Tokyo Verdy

56%

Winning margin

Jubilo Iwata wins by 2+

22%

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Jubilo Iwata 1+ goals

79%

Jubilo Iwata 2+ goals

46%

Jubilo Iwata 3+ goals

21%

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals

72%

Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals

36%

Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Jubilo Iwata (draw refunded)

59%

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jubilo Iwata at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.14 · 83 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.25 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jubilo Iwata attack 1.86 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.56

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.38 + Jubilo Iwata defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jubilo Iwata scores more

44%

level

25%

Tokyo Verdy scores more

31%

Jubilo Iwata at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jubilo Iwata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff