Tokyo Verdy 2–2 FC Tokyo: Result & Stats

Tokyo Verdy

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

FC Tokyo

4/2/2025

J1 League · Round 8Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Tokyo Verdy38%

×Draw27%

FC Tokyo36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tokyo VerdyExpected goals in this matchFC Tokyo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.24

Tokyo Verdy

1.28

FC Tokyo

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

0.94

creates per match

1.28

1.20

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy

0.94

FC Tokyo

1.28

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy

1.20

FC Tokyo

1.62

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.39scores more

FC Tokyo-0.28scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

FC Tokyo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw

64%

Tokyo Verdy or FC Tokyo

73%

Draw or FC Tokyo

62%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+

17%

FC Tokyo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals

72%

Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals

37%

Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals

14%

FC Tokyo 1+ goals

71%

FC Tokyo 2+ goals

35%

FC Tokyo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)

51%

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.20 · 6 matches

FC Tokyo away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.62 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.94 + FC Tokyo defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.28

FC Tokyo attack 1.28 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more

38%

level

27%

FC Tokyo scores more

36%

Tokyo Verdy at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff