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FC Tokyo vs Tokyo Verdy — J1 League 2018

FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
5/10/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 16Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

FC Tokyo46%
×Draw27%
Tokyo Verdy27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tokyo
1.39
Tokyo Verdy
1.01

FC Tokyo creates 38% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 46 away

creates per match

FC Tokyo
1.48
Tokyo Verdy
0.85

allows per match

FC Tokyo
1.17
Tokyo Verdy
1.30

finishing

FC Tokyo+0.00on par
Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tokyo ↓

Tokyo Verdy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Tokyo or draw
73%
FC Tokyo or Tokyo Verdy
73%
Draw or Tokyo Verdy
54%

Winning margin

FC Tokyo wins by 2+
22%
Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

FC Tokyo 1+ goals
75%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
40%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
16%
Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
64%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
27%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
63%
Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tokyo at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.17 · 149 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tokyo attack 1.48 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.39

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.85 + FC Tokyo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Tokyo scores more
46%
level
27%
Tokyo Verdy scores more
27%

FC Tokyo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Tokyo vs Tokyo Verdy

FC Tokyo beat Tokyo Verdy 2-1 in J1 League on May 10, 2026.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Tokyo.