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Tokyo Verdy vs Fagiano Okayama — J1 League 2018

Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
9/20/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 30Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Tokyo Verdy40%
×Draw27%
Fagiano Okayama33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokyo Verdy
1.31
Fagiano Okayama
1.18

Tokyo Verdy creates 11% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 24 away

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.17
Fagiano Okayama
1.08

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.28
Fagiano Okayama
1.46

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par
Fagiano Okayama+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Fagiano Okayama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw
67%
Tokyo Verdy or Fagiano Okayama
73%
Draw or Fagiano Okayama
60%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
18%
Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
73%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
38%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
14%
Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals
69%
Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals
33%
Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
54%
Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Fagiano Okayama away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.17 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.31

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.08 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more
40%
level
27%
Fagiano Okayama scores more
33%

Tokyo Verdy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tokyo Verdy vs Fagiano Okayama

Tokyo Verdy beat Fagiano Okayama 4-2 in J1 League on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Tokyo.