Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo Verdy — J1 League 2018

Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
4/29/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 13City Light Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Fagiano Okayama41%
×Draw30%
Tokyo Verdy29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fagiano Okayama
1.15
Tokyo Verdy
0.91

Fagiano Okayama creates 26% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 46 away

creates per match

Fagiano Okayama
1.00
Tokyo Verdy
0.85

allows per match

Fagiano Okayama
0.96
Tokyo Verdy
1.30

finishing

Fagiano Okayama+0.00on par
Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fagiano Okayama ↓

Tokyo Verdy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fagiano Okayama or draw
71%
Fagiano Okayama or Tokyo Verdy
70%
Draw or Tokyo Verdy
59%

Winning margin

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+
17%
Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals
68%
Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals
32%
Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals
11%
Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
60%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
23%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)
59%
Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fagiano Okayama at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.96 · 28 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.00 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.85 + Fagiano Okayama defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fagiano Okayama scores more
41%
level
30%
Tokyo Verdy scores more
29%

Fagiano Okayama at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fagiano Okayama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo Verdy

Tokyo Verdy beat Fagiano Okayama 1-0 in J1 League on April 29, 2025.

The match was played at City Light Stadium in Okayama.