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Tokyo Verdy vs Consadole Sapporo — J1 League 2018

Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
FT
5 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Consadole Sapporo
Consadole Sapporo
6/2/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 17Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Tokyo Verdy41%
×Draw26%
Consadole Sapporo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokyo Verdy
1.46
Consadole Sapporo
1.28

Tokyo Verdy creates 14% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 123 away

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.17
Consadole Sapporo
1.28

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.28
Consadole Sapporo
1.74

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par
Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Consadole Sapporo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw
67%
Tokyo Verdy or Consadole Sapporo
74%
Draw or Consadole Sapporo
59%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
20%
Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
77%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
43%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
18%
Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals
72%
Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals
37%
Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
56%
Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

Consadole Sapporo away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.74 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 1.17 + Consadole Sapporo defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.46

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.28 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more
41%
level
26%
Consadole Sapporo scores more
33%

Tokyo Verdy at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Tokyo Verdy 5–3 Consadole Sapporo

Tokyo Verdy beat Consadole Sapporo 5-3 in J1 League on June 2, 2024.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Chōfu.