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Consadole Sapporo vs Tokyo Verdy — J1 League 2018

Consadole Sapporo
Consadole Sapporo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
9/14/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 30Daiwa House Premist Dome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Consadole Sapporo43%
×Draw27%
Tokyo Verdy30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Consadole Sapporo
1.40
Tokyo Verdy
1.13

Consadole Sapporo creates 24% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 46 away

creates per match

Consadole Sapporo
1.49
Tokyo Verdy
0.85

allows per match

Consadole Sapporo
1.41
Tokyo Verdy
1.30

finishing

Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par
Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Consadole Sapporo ↓

Tokyo Verdy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Consadole Sapporo or draw
70%
Consadole Sapporo or Tokyo Verdy
73%
Draw or Tokyo Verdy
57%

Winning margin

Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+
20%
Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals
75%
Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals
41%
Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals
17%
Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
68%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
31%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)
59%
Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Consadole Sapporo at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.41 · 123 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.49 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.40

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.85 + Consadole Sapporo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Consadole Sapporo scores more
43%
level
27%
Tokyo Verdy scores more
30%

Consadole Sapporo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Consadole Sapporo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Consadole Sapporo 0–2 Tokyo Verdy

Tokyo Verdy beat Consadole Sapporo 2-0 in J1 League on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Daiwa House Premist Dome in Sapporo.