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Tokyo Verdy vs Cerezo Osaka — J1 League 2018

Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
7/6/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 22Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Tokyo Verdy38%
×Draw24%
Cerezo Osaka38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokyo Verdy
1.52
Cerezo Osaka
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Tokyo Verdy
0.94
Cerezo Osaka
1.83

allows per match

Tokyo Verdy
1.20
Cerezo Osaka
2.10

finishing

Tokyo Verdy+0.39scores more
Cerezo Osaka+0.17scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokyo Verdy ↓

Cerezo Osaka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Tokyo Verdy or draw
62%
Tokyo Verdy or Cerezo Osaka
76%
Draw or Cerezo Osaka
62%

Winning margin

Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
18%
Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
78%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
45%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
20%
Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals
78%
Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals
45%
Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
50%
Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokyo Verdy at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.20 · 6 matches

Cerezo Osaka away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.10 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.94 + Cerezo Osaka defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.52

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.83 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tokyo Verdy scores more
38%
level
24%
Cerezo Osaka scores more
38%

Tokyo Verdy at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tokyo Verdy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Tokyo Verdy 1–1 Cerezo Osaka

Tokyo Verdy and Cerezo Osaka drew 1-1 in J1 League on July 6, 2024.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Chōfu.