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Cerezo Osaka vs Tokyo Verdy — J1 League 2018

Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
6/21/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 21Yodoko Sakura Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Cerezo Osaka45%
×Draw28%
Tokyo Verdy28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerezo Osaka
1.33
Tokyo Verdy
0.98

Cerezo Osaka creates 36% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 46 away

creates per match

Cerezo Osaka
1.36
Tokyo Verdy
0.85

allows per match

Cerezo Osaka
1.10
Tokyo Verdy
1.30

finishing

Cerezo Osaka+0.00on par
Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerezo Osaka ↓

Tokyo Verdy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cerezo Osaka or draw
72%
Cerezo Osaka or Tokyo Verdy
72%
Draw or Tokyo Verdy
55%

Winning margin

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+
21%
Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals
74%
Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals
38%
Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals
15%
Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
62%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
26%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)
62%
Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerezo Osaka at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.10 · 148 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.36 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.33

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.85 + Cerezo Osaka defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cerezo Osaka scores more
45%
level
28%
Tokyo Verdy scores more
28%

Cerezo Osaka at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cerezo Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cerezo Osaka vs Tokyo Verdy

Cerezo Osaka beat Tokyo Verdy 2-1 in J1 League on June 21, 2025.

The match was played at Yodoko Sakura Stadium in Osaka.