Tokushima Vortis 1–1 Shonan Bellmare

Tokushima Vortis

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Shonan Bellmare

Cacá 13'

S. Machino 22'

5/30/2021

J1 League · Round 17Pocari Sweat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tokushima Vortis33%

×Draw27%

Shonan Bellmare40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tokushima VortisExpected goals in this matchShonan Bellmare

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.35

Tokushima Vortis

1.21

Shonan Bellmare

1.35

Shonan Bellmare creates 12% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 142 away

0.86

creates per match

1.12

1.57

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Tokushima Vortis

0.86

Shonan Bellmare

1.12

allows per match

Tokushima Vortis

1.57

Shonan Bellmare

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Shonan Bellmare+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokushima Vortis ↓

Shonan Bellmare →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Tokushima Vortis or draw

60%

Tokushima Vortis or Shonan Bellmare

73%

Draw or Shonan Bellmare

67%

Winning margin

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

14%

Shonan Bellmare wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

70%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

34%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

12%

Shonan Bellmare 1+ goals

74%

Shonan Bellmare 2+ goals

39%

Shonan Bellmare 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

46%

Shonan Bellmare (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokushima Vortis at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

Shonan Bellmare away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokushima Vortis attack 0.86 + Shonan Bellmare defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.21

Shonan Bellmare attack 1.12 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Tokushima Vortis scores more

33%

level

27%

Shonan Bellmare scores more

40%

Shonan Bellmare at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shonan Bellmare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

S. Machino

Shonan Bellmare · F

8.2

Match Events

13'

Cacá↳ K. Iwao

22'

S. Machino↳ Wellington

46'

N. Yamada← T. Hiraoka

57'

C. Battocchio← M. Watai

58'

S. Fujita← Diego

58'

K. Nishiya← K. Sugimori

61'

S. Nakamura← S. Tanaka

61'

M. Ikeda← S. Nago

79'

R. Takahashi← T. Hata

80'

J. Fujita← K. Iwao

85'

A. Kawata← T. Miyashiro

90+3'

N. Ishihara← S. Machino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TokushimaShonan

Overview

63%Possession37%

6Total Shots11

4Corners6

9Fouls14

Shots

6Total Shots11

3On Target3

1Off Target5

2Blocked3

4Inside Box8

2Outside Box3

Passing

63%Possession37%

507Total Passes283

399Accurate Passes181

79%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

9Fouls14

1Offsides0