Shonan Bellmare vs Tokushima Vortis — J1 League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 23+ matches
Shonan Bellmare45%
Tokushima Vortis28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Shonan Bellmare creates 33% more chances
Season form · 144 home / 23 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Shonan Bellmare ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Shonan Bellmare at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.35 · 144 matches
Tokushima Vortis away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.74 · 23 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Shonan Bellmare attack 1.01 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.38
Tokushima Vortis attack 0.74 + Shonan Bellmare defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.04
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Shonan Bellmare at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Shonan Bellmare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
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V-varen Nagasaki
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JEF United ChibaShonan Bellmare
Albirex NiigataIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Shonan Bellmare host Tokushima Vortis on Saturday, 14 December 2019 at 04:00. The match is part of the J1 League 2018/2019 season.
J1 League: Shonan Bellmare 1–1 Tokushima Vortis
Shonan Bellmare and Tokushima Vortis drew 1-1 in J1 League on December 14, 2019.
Goals: T. Suzuki (20'), T. Matsuda (64').
The match was played at Shonan BMW Stadium Hiratsuka (Hiratsuka).