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Tokushima Vortis vs Shimizu S-pulse — J2 League 2018

Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
9/18/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 29Pocari Sweat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Tokushima Vortis36%
×Draw27%
Shimizu S-pulse37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokushima Vortis
1.23
Shimizu S-pulse
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 146 home / 43 away

creates per match

Tokushima Vortis
1.31
Shimizu S-pulse
1.63

allows per match

Tokushima Vortis
0.90
Shimizu S-pulse
1.16

finishing

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par
Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokushima Vortis ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tokushima Vortis or draw
63%
Tokushima Vortis or Shimizu S-pulse
73%
Draw or Shimizu S-pulse
64%

Winning margin

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+
15%
Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals
71%
Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals
35%
Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals
13%
Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
72%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
36%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)
49%
Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokushima Vortis at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.90 · 146 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.31 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.63 + Tokushima Vortis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Tokushima Vortis scores more
36%
level
27%
Shimizu S-pulse scores more
37%

Shimizu S-pulse at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tokushima Vortis vs Shimizu S-pulse

Shimizu S-pulse beat Tokushima Vortis 2-1 in J2 League on September 18, 2024.

The match was played at Pocari Sweat Stadium in Naruto.