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Shimizu S-pulse vs Tokushima Vortis — J2 League 2018

Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis
9/3/2023J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 33IAI Stadium Nihondaira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Shimizu S-pulse51%
×Draw26%
Tokushima Vortis23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shimizu S-pulse
1.52
Tokushima Vortis
0.92

Shimizu S-pulse creates 65% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 147 away

creates per match

Shimizu S-pulse
2.02
Tokushima Vortis
1.19

allows per match

Shimizu S-pulse
0.64
Tokushima Vortis
1.02

finishing

Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par
Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shimizu S-pulse ↓

Tokushima Vortis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Shimizu S-pulse or draw
77%
Shimizu S-pulse or Tokushima Vortis
74%
Draw or Tokushima Vortis
49%

Winning margin

Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
26%
Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
78%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
45%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
20%
Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals
60%
Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals
23%
Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
69%
Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shimizu S-pulse at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.64 · 44 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shimizu S-pulse attack 2.02 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.52

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.19 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Shimizu S-pulse scores more
51%
level
26%
Tokushima Vortis scores more
23%

Shimizu S-pulse at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Shimizu S-pulse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shimizu S-pulse vs Tokushima Vortis

Shimizu S-pulse and Tokushima Vortis drew 0-0 in J2 League on September 3, 2023.

The match was played at IAI Stadium Nihondaira in Shizuoka.