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Tokushima Vortis vs Sagan Tosu — J2 League 2018

Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sagan Tosu
Sagan Tosu
5/6/2025J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 14Pocarisweat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tokushima Vortis41%
×Draw29%
Sagan Tosu30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokushima Vortis
1.23
Sagan Tosu
1.01

Tokushima Vortis creates 22% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tokushima Vortis
1.31
Sagan Tosu
1.11

allows per match

Tokushima Vortis
0.90
Sagan Tosu
1.16

finishing

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par
Sagan Tosu+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokushima Vortis ↓

Sagan Tosu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Tokushima Vortis or draw
70%
Tokushima Vortis or Sagan Tosu
71%
Draw or Sagan Tosu
59%

Winning margin

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+
18%
Sagan Tosu wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals
71%
Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals
35%
Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals
13%
Sagan Tosu 1+ goals
64%
Sagan Tosu 2+ goals
27%
Sagan Tosu 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)
58%
Sagan Tosu (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokushima Vortis at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.90 · 146 matches

Sagan Tosu away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.31 + Sagan Tosu defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sagan Tosu attack 1.11 + Tokushima Vortis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tokushima Vortis scores more
41%
level
29%
Sagan Tosu scores more
30%

Tokushima Vortis at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Tokushima Vortis 0–1 Sagan Tosu

Sagan Tosu beat Tokushima Vortis 1-0 in J2 League on May 6, 2025.

The match was played at Pocarisweat Stadium in Naruto.