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Sagan Tosu vs Tokushima Vortis — J2 League 2018

Sagan Tosu
Sagan Tosu
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis
11/2/2025J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 35Ekimae Real Estate Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sagan Tosu36%
×Draw28%
Tokushima Vortis35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sagan Tosu
1.17
Tokushima Vortis
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 147 away

creates per match

Sagan Tosu
1.32
Tokushima Vortis
1.19

allows per match

Sagan Tosu
1.11
Tokushima Vortis
1.02

finishing

Sagan Tosu+0.00on par
Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sagan Tosu ↓

Tokushima Vortis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sagan Tosu or draw
65%
Sagan Tosu or Tokushima Vortis
72%
Draw or Tokushima Vortis
64%

Winning margin

Sagan Tosu wins by 2+
15%
Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sagan Tosu 1+ goals
69%
Sagan Tosu 2+ goals
33%
Sagan Tosu 3+ goals
11%
Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals
68%
Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals
32%
Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sagan Tosu (draw refunded)
51%
Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sagan Tosu at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sagan Tosu attack 1.32 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.17

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.19 + Sagan Tosu defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sagan Tosu scores more
36%
level
28%
Tokushima Vortis scores more
35%

Sagan Tosu at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sagan Tosu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Sagan Tosu 0–0 Tokushima Vortis

Sagan Tosu and Tokushima Vortis drew 0-0 in J2 League on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium in Tosu.