Tokushima Vortis 0–0 Nagoya Grampus: Result & Stats

Tokushima Vortis

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nagoya Grampus

5/22/2021

J1 League · Round 15Pocari Sweat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Tokushima Vortis31%

×Draw27%

Nagoya Grampus42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tokushima VortisExpected goals in this matchNagoya Grampus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.36

Tokushima Vortis

1.14

Nagoya Grampus

1.36

Nagoya Grampus creates 19% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 148 away

0.86

creates per match

1.16

1.57

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Tokushima Vortis

0.86

Nagoya Grampus

1.16

allows per match

Tokushima Vortis

1.57

Nagoya Grampus

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokushima Vortis ↓

Nagoya Grampus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Tokushima Vortis or draw

58%

Tokushima Vortis or Nagoya Grampus

73%

Draw or Nagoya Grampus

69%

Winning margin

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

13%

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

68%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

32%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

11%

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals

74%

Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals

39%

Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

43%

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokushima Vortis at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches

Nagoya Grampus away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.41 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokushima Vortis attack 0.86 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.14

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.16 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tokushima Vortis scores more

31%

level

27%

Nagoya Grampus scores more

42%

Nagoya Grampus at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

K. Iwao

Tokushima Vortis · M

8.0

Match Events

38'

Yasuki Kimoto

51'

Tokuma Suzuki

59'

Dušan Cvetinović

60'

M. Saito← Y. Soma

60'

K. Nagasawa← Gabriel Xavier

73'

R. Yamasaki← T. Yonemoto

74'

C. Battocchio← T. Suzuki

85'

M. Watai← T. Miyashiro

85'

S. Fujiwara← K. Sugimori

85'

A. Sato← Y. Kakita

90+3'

S. Fukuoka← Y. Konishi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TokushimaNagoya

Overview

57%Possession43%

11Total Shots9

5Corners7

19Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots9

2On Target1

5Off Target3

4Blocked5

3Inside Box3

8Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

496Total Passes352

418Accurate Passes259

84%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2