Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nagoya Grampus vs Tokushima Vortis — J1 League 2018

Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis
M. Kanazaki 89' (pen)
J. Fujita 83' (OG)
Mateus 52' (pen)
9/10/2021J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 28Toyota Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Nagoya Grampus51%
×Draw26%
Tokushima Vortis23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nagoya Grampus
1.52
Tokushima Vortis
0.91

Nagoya Grampus creates 67% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 22 away

creates per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.35
Tokushima Vortis
0.77

allows per match

Nagoya Grampus
1.05
Tokushima Vortis
1.68

finishing

Nagoya Grampus+0.00on par
Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nagoya Grampus ↓

Tokushima Vortis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nagoya Grampus or draw
77%
Nagoya Grampus or Tokushima Vortis
74%
Draw or Tokushima Vortis
49%

Winning margin

Nagoya Grampus wins by 2+
26%
Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Nagoya Grampus 1+ goals
78%
Nagoya Grampus 2+ goals
45%
Nagoya Grampus 3+ goals
20%
Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals
60%
Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals
23%
Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Nagoya Grampus (draw refunded)
69%
Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nagoya Grampus at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.05 · 150 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nagoya Grampus attack 1.35 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.52

Tokushima Vortis attack 0.77 + Nagoya Grampus defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nagoya Grampus scores more
51%
level
26%
Tokushima Vortis scores more
23%

Nagoya Grampus at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nagoya Grampus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
MateusNagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus · M
8.5

Match Events

50'
Takeru Kishimoto
52'
MateusPenalty
53'
Diego← M. Watai
64'
T. Yonemoto← K. Nagasawa
64'
Y. Soma← R. Morishita
64'
Gabriel Xavier← N. Maeda
74'
K. Ichimi← A. Hamashita
75'
M. Kanazaki← J. Świerczok
75'
A. Sato← Y. Kakita
76'
Kazunari Ichimi
82'
J. Fujita← T. Suzuki
83'
J. FujitaOwn goal
85'
Y. Kimoto← S. Inagaki
89'
M. KanazakiPenalty
90+3'
Hidenori Ishii

Possession

63%Nagoya

Shots

15Nagoya

Pass accuracy

51%Nagoya

Statistics

NagoyaTokushima
Overview
63%Possession37%
15Total Shots7
6Corners1
7Fouls21
Shots
15Total Shots7
8On Target1
4Off Target4
3Blocked2
7Inside Box3
8Outside Box4
Passing
63%Possession37%
556Total Passes337
483Accurate Passes275
87%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
7Fouls21
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Nagoya Grampus vs Tokushima Vortis

Nagoya Grampus beat Tokushima Vortis 3-0 in J1 League on September 10, 2021.

Goals: Mateus (52' pen), J. Fujita (83' o.g.), M. Kanazaki (89' pen).

Nagoya Grampus controlled possession (63%) and registered 15 shots to 7.

The match was played at Toyota Stadium in Toyota.