Tokushima Vortis 1–0 Mito Hollyhock: Result & Stats

Tokushima Vortis

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mito Hollyhock

6/23/2024

J2 League · Round 21Pocari Sweat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Tokushima Vortis42%

×Draw28%

Mito Hollyhock30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tokushima VortisExpected goals in this matchMito Hollyhock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.05

Tokushima Vortis

1.30

Mito Hollyhock

1.05

Tokushima Vortis creates 24% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 168 away

1.31

creates per match

1.20

0.90

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Tokushima Vortis

1.31

Mito Hollyhock

1.20

allows per match

Tokushima Vortis

0.90

Mito Hollyhock

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Mito Hollyhock+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokushima Vortis ↓

Mito Hollyhock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Tokushima Vortis or draw

70%

Tokushima Vortis or Mito Hollyhock

72%

Draw or Mito Hollyhock

58%

Winning margin

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

19%

Mito Hollyhock wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

73%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

37%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

14%

Mito Hollyhock 1+ goals

65%

Mito Hollyhock 2+ goals

28%

Mito Hollyhock 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

58%

Mito Hollyhock (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokushima Vortis at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.90 · 146 matches

Mito Hollyhock away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.29 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.31 + Mito Hollyhock defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.30

Mito Hollyhock attack 1.20 + Tokushima Vortis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Tokushima Vortis scores more

42%

level

28%

Mito Hollyhock scores more

30%

Tokushima Vortis at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff