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Mito Hollyhock vs Tokushima Vortis — J2 League 2018

Mito Hollyhock
Mito Hollyhock
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis
6/28/2025J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 21Best Denki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Mito Hollyhock37%
×Draw28%
Tokushima Vortis35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mito Hollyhock
1.20
Tokushima Vortis
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 167 home / 147 away

creates per match

Mito Hollyhock
1.37
Tokushima Vortis
1.19

allows per match

Mito Hollyhock
1.12
Tokushima Vortis
1.02

finishing

Mito Hollyhock+0.00on par
Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mito Hollyhock ↓

Tokushima Vortis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mito Hollyhock or draw
65%
Mito Hollyhock or Tokushima Vortis
72%
Draw or Tokushima Vortis
63%

Winning margin

Mito Hollyhock wins by 2+
16%
Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mito Hollyhock 1+ goals
70%
Mito Hollyhock 2+ goals
34%
Mito Hollyhock 3+ goals
12%
Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals
69%
Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals
32%
Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mito Hollyhock (draw refunded)
51%
Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mito Hollyhock at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.12 · 167 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mito Hollyhock attack 1.37 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.20

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.19 + Mito Hollyhock defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mito Hollyhock scores more
37%
level
28%
Tokushima Vortis scores more
35%

Mito Hollyhock at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mito Hollyhock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mito Hollyhock vs Tokushima Vortis

Mito Hollyhock and Tokushima Vortis drew 1-1 in J2 League on June 28, 2025.

The match was played at Best Denki Stadium in Mito.