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Tokushima Vortis vs Kamatamare Sanuki — J2 League 2018

Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kamatamare Sanuki
Kamatamare Sanuki
4/22/2018J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 10Pocari Sweat Stadium (Naruto)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Tokushima Vortis56%
×Draw25%
Kamatamare Sanuki19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokushima Vortis
1.58
Kamatamare Sanuki
0.79

Tokushima Vortis creates 100% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 26 away

creates per match

Tokushima Vortis
1.31
Kamatamare Sanuki
0.69

allows per match

Tokushima Vortis
0.90
Kamatamare Sanuki
1.85

finishing

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par
Kamatamare Sanuki+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokushima Vortis ↓

Kamatamare Sanuki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tokushima Vortis or draw
81%
Tokushima Vortis or Kamatamare Sanuki
75%
Draw or Kamatamare Sanuki
44%

Winning margin

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+
30%
Kamatamare Sanuki wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals
79%
Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals
47%
Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals
21%
Kamatamare Sanuki 1+ goals
55%
Kamatamare Sanuki 2+ goals
19%
Kamatamare Sanuki 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)
75%
Kamatamare Sanuki (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokushima Vortis at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.90 · 146 matches

Kamatamare Sanuki away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.31 + Kamatamare Sanuki defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.58

Kamatamare Sanuki attack 0.69 + Tokushima Vortis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Tokushima Vortis scores more
56%
level
25%
Kamatamare Sanuki scores more
19%

Tokushima Vortis at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tokushima Vortis vs Kamatamare Sanuki

Kamatamare Sanuki beat Tokushima Vortis 1-0 in J2 League on April 22, 2018.

The match was played at Pocari Sweat Stadium (Naruto).