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Kamatamare Sanuki vs Tokushima Vortis — J2 League 2018

Kamatamare Sanuki
Kamatamare Sanuki
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis
9/1/2018J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 31Pikara Stadium (Marugame)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Kamatamare Sanuki25%
×Draw28%
Tokushima Vortis48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamatamare Sanuki
0.89
Tokushima Vortis
1.36

Tokushima Vortis creates 53% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 147 away

creates per match

Kamatamare Sanuki
0.75
Tokushima Vortis
1.19

allows per match

Kamatamare Sanuki
1.54
Tokushima Vortis
1.02

finishing

Kamatamare Sanuki+0.00on par
Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamatamare Sanuki ↓

Tokushima Vortis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–210%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kamatamare Sanuki or draw
52%
Kamatamare Sanuki or Tokushima Vortis
72%
Draw or Tokushima Vortis
75%

Winning margin

Kamatamare Sanuki wins by 2+
8%
Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Kamatamare Sanuki 1+ goals
59%
Kamatamare Sanuki 2+ goals
22%
Kamatamare Sanuki 3+ goals
6%
Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals
74%
Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals
39%
Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kamatamare Sanuki (draw refunded)
34%
Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamatamare Sanuki at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamatamare Sanuki attack 0.75 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.89

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.19 + Kamatamare Sanuki defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kamatamare Sanuki scores more
25%
level
28%
Tokushima Vortis scores more
48%

Tokushima Vortis at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Kamatamare Sanuki 0–4 Tokushima Vortis

Tokushima Vortis beat Kamatamare Sanuki 4-0 in J2 League on September 1, 2018.

The match was played at Pikara Stadium (Marugame).