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Tokushima Vortis vs Kagoshima United — J2 League 2018

Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis
FT
5 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United
7/31/2019J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 25Pocari Sweat Stadium (Naruto)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Tokushima Vortis55%
×Draw25%
Kagoshima United20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokushima Vortis
1.62
Kagoshima United
0.88

Tokushima Vortis creates 84% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 42 away

creates per match

Tokushima Vortis
1.31
Kagoshima United
0.86

allows per match

Tokushima Vortis
0.90
Kagoshima United
1.93

finishing

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par
Kagoshima United+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokushima Vortis ↓

Kagoshima United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tokushima Vortis or draw
80%
Tokushima Vortis or Kagoshima United
75%
Draw or Kagoshima United
45%

Winning margin

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+
29%
Kagoshima United wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals
80%
Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals
48%
Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals
22%
Kagoshima United 1+ goals
59%
Kagoshima United 2+ goals
22%
Kagoshima United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)
73%
Kagoshima United (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokushima Vortis at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.90 · 146 matches

Kagoshima United away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.93 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.31 + Kagoshima United defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.62

Kagoshima United attack 0.86 + Tokushima Vortis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Tokushima Vortis scores more
55%
level
25%
Kagoshima United scores more
20%

Tokushima Vortis at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Tokushima Vortis 5–2 Kagoshima United

Tokushima Vortis beat Kagoshima United 5-2 in J2 League on July 31, 2019.

The match was played at Pocari Sweat Stadium (Naruto).