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Kagoshima United vs Tokushima Vortis — J2 League 2018

Kagoshima United
Kagoshima United
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis
3/2/2024J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 2Shiranami Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Kagoshima United32%
×Draw28%
Tokushima Vortis40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kagoshima United
1.10
Tokushima Vortis
1.25

Tokushima Vortis creates 14% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 147 away

creates per match

Kagoshima United
1.18
Tokushima Vortis
1.19

allows per match

Kagoshima United
1.30
Tokushima Vortis
1.02

finishing

Kagoshima United+0.00on par
Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kagoshima United ↓

Tokushima Vortis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kagoshima United or draw
60%
Kagoshima United or Tokushima Vortis
72%
Draw or Tokushima Vortis
68%

Winning margin

Kagoshima United wins by 2+
13%
Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kagoshima United 1+ goals
67%
Kagoshima United 2+ goals
30%
Kagoshima United 3+ goals
10%
Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals
71%
Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals
36%
Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kagoshima United (draw refunded)
45%
Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kagoshima United at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.30 · 40 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kagoshima United attack 1.18 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.10

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.19 + Kagoshima United defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kagoshima United scores more
32%
level
28%
Tokushima Vortis scores more
40%

Tokushima Vortis at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kagoshima United vs Tokushima Vortis

Kagoshima United beat Tokushima Vortis 2-1 in J2 League on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Shiranami Stadium in Kagoshima.