Tokushima Vortis vs Gamba Osaka — J1 League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 21+ matches
Tokushima Vortis32%
Gamba Osaka41%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Gamba Osaka creates 15% more chances
Season form · 21 home / 147 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Tokushima Vortis ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Tokushima Vortis at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches
Gamba Osaka away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.48 · 147 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Tokushima Vortis attack 0.86 + Gamba Osaka defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.17
Gamba Osaka attack 1.12 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Gamba Osaka at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Gamba Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
Kashima
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Vissel Kobe
Machida Zelvia
FC Tokyo
Kashiwa ReysolGamba Osaka
Kyoto Sanga
Yokohama F. Marinos
Urawa
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
Kawasaki Frontale
Fagiano Okayama
Tokyo Verdy
Avispa Fukuoka
Shimizu S-pulse
V-varen Nagasaki
Yokohama FC
Mito Hollyhock
JEF United Chiba
Shonan Bellmare
Albirex NiigataIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Tokushima Vortis host Gamba Osaka on Monday, 9 August 2021 at 10:00. The match is part of the J1 League 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Tokushima Vortis vs Gamba Osaka
Tokushima Vortis beat Gamba Osaka 2-1 in J1 League on August 9, 2021.
Goals: T. Miyashiro (30'), K. Nishiya (45+1'), Tiago Alves (90+1').
Gamba Osaka controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 21.
The match was played at Pocari Sweat Stadium in Naruto.