Gamba Osaka 2–1 Tokushima Vortis: Result & Stats

Gamba Osaka

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tokushima Vortis

5/27/2021

J1 League · Round 16Panasonic Stadium Suita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Gamba Osaka48%

×Draw26%

Tokushima Vortis26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gamba OsakaExpected goals in this matchTokushima Vortis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.02

Gamba Osaka

1.48

Tokushima Vortis

1.02

Gamba Osaka creates 45% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 20 away

1.36

creates per match

0.85

1.19

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Gamba Osaka

1.36

Tokushima Vortis

0.85

allows per match

Gamba Osaka

1.19

Tokushima Vortis

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gamba Osaka+0.00on par

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gamba Osaka ↓

Tokushima Vortis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Gamba Osaka or draw

74%

Gamba Osaka or Tokushima Vortis

74%

Draw or Tokushima Vortis

52%

Winning margin

Gamba Osaka wins by 2+

24%

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Gamba Osaka 1+ goals

77%

Gamba Osaka 2+ goals

43%

Gamba Osaka 3+ goals

19%

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

64%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

27%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Gamba Osaka (draw refunded)

65%

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gamba Osaka at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.19 · 149 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gamba Osaka attack 1.36 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.48

Tokushima Vortis attack 0.85 + Gamba Osaka defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gamba Osaka scores more

48%

level

26%

Tokushima Vortis scores more

26%

Gamba Osaka at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gamba Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff