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Tokushima Vortis vs Fagiano Okayama — J2 League 2018

Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
7/9/2023J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 25Pocari Sweat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 146+ matches

Tokushima Vortis41%
×Draw29%
Fagiano Okayama30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokushima Vortis
1.20
Fagiano Okayama
0.97

Tokushima Vortis creates 24% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 146 away

creates per match

Tokushima Vortis
1.31
Fagiano Okayama
1.03

allows per match

Tokushima Vortis
0.90
Fagiano Okayama
1.08

finishing

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par
Fagiano Okayama+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokushima Vortis ↓

Fagiano Okayama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Tokushima Vortis or draw
70%
Tokushima Vortis or Fagiano Okayama
71%
Draw or Fagiano Okayama
59%

Winning margin

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+
18%
Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals
70%
Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals
34%
Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals
12%
Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals
62%
Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals
25%
Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)
58%
Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokushima Vortis at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.90 · 146 matches

Fagiano Okayama away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.08 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.31 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.20

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.03 + Tokushima Vortis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tokushima Vortis scores more
41%
level
29%
Fagiano Okayama scores more
30%

Tokushima Vortis at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tokushima Vortis vs Fagiano Okayama

Tokushima Vortis and Fagiano Okayama drew 1-1 in J2 League on July 9, 2023.

The match was played at Pocari Sweat Stadium in Naruto.