Fagiano Okayama 1–2 Tokushima Vortis

Fagiano Okayama

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Tokushima Vortis

5/6/2024

J2 League · Round 14City Light Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

Fagiano Okayama37%

×Draw29%

Tokushima Vortis34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fagiano OkayamaExpected goals in this matchTokushima Vortis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.07

Fagiano Okayama

1.12

Tokushima Vortis

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 147 home / 147 away

1.22

creates per match

1.19

0.96

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Fagiano Okayama

1.22

Tokushima Vortis

1.19

allows per match

Fagiano Okayama

0.96

Tokushima Vortis

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fagiano Okayama+0.00on par

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fagiano Okayama ↓

Tokushima Vortis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Fagiano Okayama or draw

66%

Fagiano Okayama or Tokushima Vortis

71%

Draw or Tokushima Vortis

63%

Winning margin

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+

15%

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals

67%

Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals

31%

Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals

10%

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

66%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

29%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)

52%

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fagiano Okayama at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.96 · 147 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.22 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.12

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.19 + Fagiano Okayama defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Fagiano Okayama scores more

37%

level

29%

Tokushima Vortis scores more

34%

Fagiano Okayama at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Fagiano Okayama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff