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Tokushima Vortis vs Consadole Sapporo — J1 League 2018

Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Consadole Sapporo
Consadole Sapporo
5/9/2021J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 13Pocari Sweat Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Tokushima Vortis38%
×Draw26%
Consadole Sapporo35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokushima Vortis
1.34
Consadole Sapporo
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 123 away

creates per match

Tokushima Vortis
0.95
Consadole Sapporo
1.28

allows per match

Tokushima Vortis
1.26
Consadole Sapporo
1.74

finishing

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par
Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokushima Vortis ↓

Consadole Sapporo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Tokushima Vortis or draw
65%
Tokushima Vortis or Consadole Sapporo
74%
Draw or Consadole Sapporo
62%

Winning margin

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+
17%
Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals
74%
Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals
39%
Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals
15%
Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals
72%
Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals
36%
Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)
52%
Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokushima Vortis at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Consadole Sapporo away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.74 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokushima Vortis attack 0.95 + Consadole Sapporo defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.34

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.28 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Tokushima Vortis scores more
38%
level
26%
Consadole Sapporo scores more
35%

Tokushima Vortis at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: Tokushima Vortis 1–2 Consadole Sapporo

Consadole Sapporo beat Tokushima Vortis 2-1 in J1 League on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Pocari Sweat Stadium in Naruto.