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Consadole Sapporo vs Tokushima Vortis — J1 League 2018

Consadole Sapporo
Consadole Sapporo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis
7/4/2021J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 21Sapporo Atsubetsu Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Consadole Sapporo47%
×Draw25%
Tokushima Vortis28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Consadole Sapporo
1.54
Tokushima Vortis
1.13

Consadole Sapporo creates 36% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 20 away

creates per match

Consadole Sapporo
1.49
Tokushima Vortis
0.85

allows per match

Consadole Sapporo
1.41
Tokushima Vortis
1.60

finishing

Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par
Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Consadole Sapporo ↓

Tokushima Vortis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Consadole Sapporo or draw
72%
Consadole Sapporo or Tokushima Vortis
75%
Draw or Tokushima Vortis
53%

Winning margin

Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+
24%
Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals
79%
Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals
45%
Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals
20%
Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals
68%
Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals
31%
Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)
63%
Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Consadole Sapporo at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.41 · 123 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.49 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.54

Tokushima Vortis attack 0.85 + Consadole Sapporo defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Consadole Sapporo scores more
47%
level
25%
Tokushima Vortis scores more
28%

Consadole Sapporo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Consadole Sapporo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Consadole Sapporo vs Tokushima Vortis

Consadole Sapporo beat Tokushima Vortis 1-0 in J1 League on July 4, 2021.

The match was played at Sapporo Atsubetsu Park Stadium in Sapporo.