Tokushima Vortis vs Albirex Niigata — J2 League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 105+ matches
Tokushima Vortis38%
Albirex Niigata34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 147 home / 105 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Tokushima Vortis ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Tokushima Vortis at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.90 · 147 matches
Albirex Niigata away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.19 · 105 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Tokushima Vortis attack 1.31 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25
Albirex Niigata attack 1.41 + Tokushima Vortis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.16
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Tokushima Vortis at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
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Kamatamare SanukiIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Tokushima Vortis host Albirex Niigata on Sunday, 25 October 2020 at 05:00. The match is part of the J2 League 2018/2019 season.
J2 League: Tokushima Vortis 0–0 Albirex Niigata
Tokushima Vortis and Albirex Niigata drew 0-0 in J2 League on October 25, 2020.
The match was played at Pocari Sweat Stadium in Naruto.