Albirex Niigata 0–1 Tokushima Vortis

Albirex Niigata

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tokushima Vortis

A. Kawata 90'

9/19/2020

J2 League · Round 20Denka Big Swan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Albirex Niigata39%

×Draw28%

Tokushima Vortis33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albirex NiigataExpected goals in this matchTokushima Vortis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.14

Albirex Niigata

1.27

Tokushima Vortis

1.14

Albirex Niigata creates 11% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 149 away

1.52

creates per match

1.19

1.08

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Albirex Niigata

1.52

Tokushima Vortis

1.19

allows per match

Albirex Niigata

1.08

Tokushima Vortis

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Albirex Niigata+0.00on par

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata ↓

Tokushima Vortis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata or draw

67%

Albirex Niigata or Tokushima Vortis

72%

Draw or Tokushima Vortis

61%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+

17%

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals

72%

Albirex Niigata 2+ goals

36%

Albirex Niigata 3+ goals

14%

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

68%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

32%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)

54%

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.08 · 105 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.01 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata attack 1.52 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.27

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.19 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Albirex Niigata scores more

39%

level

28%

Tokushima Vortis scores more

33%

Albirex Niigata at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Albirex Niigata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

S. Fukuoka← T. Tamukai

59'

Y. Shimada

59'

F. Romero← M. Nakajima

63'

D. Cvetinović← K. Uchida

63'

T. Kishimoto← S. Fujita

78'

Y. Takagi← Y. Shimada

78'

K. Yamura← A. Watanabe

82'

A. Kawata← Y. Kakita

90'

A. Kawata

Albirex

Tokushima

21

Kamifukum

5

Ishii

2

▼

Tamukai

22

▼

Fujita

8

Iwao

6

▼

24

7

10

45

19

▼

22

3

5

7

2

20

▼

17

10

49

13

▼

Nakajima

11

▼

Watanabe

Manager: Albert Puig

59'▲F. Romero←▼M. Nakajima

78'▲Y. Takagi←▼Y. Shimada

78'▲K. Yamura←▼A. Watanabe

Albirex Niigata substitutes

24Romero33Takagi39Yamura16González31Horigome41Fujita50Tagami

Manager: Ricardo Rodríguez

50'▲S. Fukuoka←▼T. Tamukai

63'▲D. Cvetinović←▼K. Uchida

63'▲T. Kishimoto←▼S. Fujita

82'▲A. Kawata←▼Y. Kakita

Tokushima Vortis substitutes

20Fukuoka3Cvetinović15Kishimoto9Kawata23Suzuki31Hasegawa38Kajikawa

J2 League: Albirex Niigata 0–1 Tokushima Vortis

Tokushima Vortis beat Albirex Niigata 1-0 in J2 League on September 19, 2020.

Goals: A. Kawata (90').

The match was played at Denka Big Swan Stadium in Niigata.

Albirex Niigata vs Tokushima Vortis — J2 League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

J2 League: Albirex Niigata 0–1 Tokushima Vortis