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Toi Seng vs Sporting Macau — Primeira Divisão 2026

Toi Seng
Toi Seng
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Sporting Macau
Sporting Macau
7/22/2023Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 17Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Toi Seng48%
×Draw18%
Sporting Macau34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toi Seng
2.96
Sporting Macau
2.50

Toi Seng creates 18% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 28 away

creates per match

Toi Seng
1.00
Sporting Macau
0.86

allows per match

Toi Seng
4.13
Sporting Macau
4.93

finishing

Toi Seng+0.00on par
Sporting Macau+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

87%Yes
  • Yes87
  • No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toi Seng ↓

Sporting Macau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–14%
4–24%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
78%22%4.5
62%38%

Double chance

Toi Seng or draw
66%
Toi Seng or Sporting Macau
82%
Draw or Sporting Macau
52%

Winning margin

Toi Seng wins by 2+
30%
Sporting Macau wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Toi Seng 1+ goals
95%
Toi Seng 2+ goals
79%
Toi Seng 3+ goals
55%
Sporting Macau 1+ goals
92%
Sporting Macau 2+ goals
71%
Sporting Macau 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Toi Seng (draw refunded)
59%
Sporting Macau (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
83%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toi Seng at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.13 · 8 matches

Sporting Macau away — creates 0.86, concedes 4.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toi Seng attack 1.00 + Sporting Macau defence 4.93 → ÷2 → 2.96

Sporting Macau attack 0.86 + Toi Seng defence 4.13 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Toi Seng scores more
48%
level
18%
Sporting Macau scores more
34%

Toi Seng at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Toi Seng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Divisão: Toi Seng 3–3 Sporting Macau

Toi Seng and Sporting Macau drew 3-3 in Primeira Divisão on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at Macau Olympic Complex Stadium in Taipa.