Sporting Macau 2–5 Toi Seng: Result & Stats

Sporting Macau

FT

2 – 5

Toi Seng

4/22/2023

Primeira Divisão · Round 8Macau Olympic Complex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sporting Macau43%

×Draw19%

Toi Seng37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sporting MacauExpected goals in this matchToi Seng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

2.25

Sporting Macau

2.42

Toi Seng

2.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 8 away

1.45

creates per match

1.13

3.36

allows per match

3.38

creates per match

Sporting Macau

1.45

Toi Seng

1.13

allows per match

Sporting Macau

3.36

Toi Seng

3.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sporting Macau+0.00on par

Toi Seng+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sporting Macau ↓

Toi Seng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

49%51%

Double chance

Sporting Macau or draw

63%

Sporting Macau or Toi Seng

81%

Draw or Toi Seng

57%

Winning margin

Sporting Macau wins by 2+

25%

Toi Seng wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Sporting Macau 1+ goals

91%

Sporting Macau 2+ goals

69%

Sporting Macau 3+ goals

43%

Toi Seng 1+ goals

89%

Toi Seng 2+ goals

65%

Toi Seng 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Sporting Macau (draw refunded)

54%

Toi Seng (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

76%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sporting Macau at home — creates 1.45, concedes 3.36 · 22 matches

Toi Seng away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sporting Macau attack 1.45 + Toi Seng defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.42

Toi Seng attack 1.13 + Sporting Macau defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sporting Macau scores more

43%

level

19%

Toi Seng scores more

37%

Sporting Macau at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sporting Macau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff