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Toi Seng vs Hang Sai — Primeira Divisão 2026

Toi Seng
Toi Seng
FT
1 – 4
Hang Sai
Hang Sai
4/8/2023Primeira DivisãoPrimeira Divisão · Round 6Canidrome

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Toi Seng30%
×Draw18%
Hang Sai53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toi Seng
2.25
Hang Sai
2.98

Hang Sai creates 32% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 32 away

creates per match

Toi Seng
1.00
Hang Sai
1.84

allows per match

Toi Seng
4.13
Hang Sai
3.50

finishing

Toi Seng+0.00on par
Hang Sai+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toi Seng ↓

Hang Sai →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 1–2 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
76%24%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

Toi Seng or draw
47%
Toi Seng or Hang Sai
82%
Draw or Hang Sai
70%

Winning margin

Toi Seng wins by 2+
16%
Hang Sai wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Toi Seng 1+ goals
89%
Toi Seng 2+ goals
65%
Toi Seng 3+ goals
39%
Hang Sai 1+ goals
95%
Hang Sai 2+ goals
79%
Hang Sai 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

Toi Seng (draw refunded)
36%
Hang Sai (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toi Seng at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.13 · 8 matches

Hang Sai away — creates 1.84, concedes 3.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toi Seng attack 1.00 + Hang Sai defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Hang Sai attack 1.84 + Toi Seng defence 4.13 → ÷2 → 2.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Toi Seng scores more
30%
level
18%
Hang Sai scores more
53%

Hang Sai at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hang Sai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Toi Seng vs Hang Sai

Hang Sai beat Toi Seng 4-1 in Primeira Divisão on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Canidrome in Macau.